This is New Zealand’s first El Niño since 2016. It occurs every three to seven years on average and usually peaks during the late Southern Hemisphere spring or early summer and then weakens the following year. The less typical patterns this year mean it is likely to peak later than usual.
El Niño has been associated with historically significant droughts in New Zealand, such as in 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2009-10.
NIWA is closely monitoring the developing El Niño. The forecaster says has a 100 percent chance of it continuing through summer 2023-2024 and 85 percent chance of continuing throughout autumn. However unusual ocean heat in the western equatorial Pacific and on a global scale has contributed to circulation patterns that are not typically associated with a traditional El Niño.
El Niño increases the chances of more frequent and extreme adverse weather events.
During El Niño, New Zealand tends to experience strong, more frequent westerly winds. This increases the chance for drier-than-normal conditions in northern and eastern areas of the country such as Canterbury.
Stay up to date with the latest weather information from MetService.
MPI and NIWA have developed and launched a tool to help predict drought conditions more accurately.
Get Prepared
Water Storage
In times of low rainfall and heightened heat, it's crucial to ensure a reliable water supply for your companion and livestock animals. Consider implementing a water storage system to meet their increased water needs. Store water in clean, safe containers, and regularly check for contamination. Having a backup supply ensures that your animals have access to water even during periods of scarcity. Additionally, familiarise yourself with local regulations and guidelines on water storage to ensure the safety and well-being of your animals.
MSD may be able to help you pay to get your personal water tank refilled and delivered.
You need to be living in either:
- a property you own
- a property you're renting and you're responsible for refilling the water tank.
You can get up to $500 to pay for refill and delivery. You can generally get one payment for water tank refill every 12 months.
Pets and Animals
El Nino can cause hot conditions that may cause animals to be heat-stressed. Watch out for signs of heat stress in your pets. If you see signs of heat stress, call your veterinarian.
Pets, horses, and livestock are susceptible to difficulties from excessive heat. Animals cannot explain their needs, so it is up to you to take extra care during heat waves to ensure your animals’ needs are met.
Always check there is fresh air flow and water available. Animals must have access to enough clean water daily. In hot and dry conditions your animals might drink three times more water than usual, especially if they are eating dry feed like hay or pellets. They also need more water if they are working, pregnant or lactating.
Advice about caring for animals during a heat wave is available on the MPI website.
A dry-weather plan template is available here.
Farmers and Growers
If you are a farmer or grower, or lifestyle block owner, you need to be prepared and have an action plan in case we do get unusually dry weather.
Monitor seasonal forecasts, and extreme weather and fire warnings. Make decisions early and act timely.
Think of the fire risk – use low flammability plants near buildings and for shade, clear flammable plants away from buildings and other infrastructure, maintain fire breaks, and ensure firefighting water reserves are topped up. Also consider the potential impacts on your neighbours if a fire escapes.
If you’re new to farming, or only bought a lifestyle block recently, talk to experts who have been through an El Niño before. Seek advice from your neighbours, bank adviser, accountant, vets, and professional advisers.
Independent financial and business advice is available through the Farm Business Advice Fund. Qualifying farmers can receive up to $6,000 to seek advice and can apply through the Rural Support Trust. Farmers under financial stress can access the Farm Debt Mediation Scheme which helps level the playing field debt discussions with a creditor. Farmers can request mediation at any time. MPI can also assist with the costs of mediation and preparing for mediation through a hardship fund.
Support on managing feed, animal welfare, and farming through drought is available through levy organisations such as DairyNZ and Beef + Lamb New Zealand. Support and information on horticulture during a drought is available at Horticulture New Zealand and the Foundation for Arable Research’s website.
Fire Safety
Ninety eight percent of wildfires in New Zealand are started by people. Visit Fire and Emergency's checkitsalright.nz website for safety tips to lower the risk of wildfire when you’re lighting a fire or doing anything that could cause a spark, to check whether it’s safe to light a fire, and if you’ll need a fire permit.
Don’t wait until there’s smoke in the air to prepare. Help defend your home and property from wildfire by:
- Keeping your grass short around your home and other buildings on your property
- Keeping gutters and areas around decks clear of dead leaves, debris and pine needles
- Removing highly flammable plants close to your home and other buildings on your property
- Making a plan to plant low flammability plants before next summer
If you see smoke or fire and believe there’s a risk to people or property, call 111 and ask for ‘Fire’ immediately. If you’re not sure whether it’s a real emergency or not, call 111 and ask.